Title : AUSTRALIAN GAY MARRIAGE HEADING FOR DEFEAT DESPITE "POSITIVE" POLLS
link : AUSTRALIAN GAY MARRIAGE HEADING FOR DEFEAT DESPITE "POSITIVE" POLLS
AUSTRALIAN GAY MARRIAGE HEADING FOR DEFEAT DESPITE "POSITIVE" POLLS
The published polls would have you believe that Australia is about to vote YES to legalise same-sex marriage when the two-month-long postal voting period finally ends on November 7th.
But things may not be as done-and-dusted as the YES camp seem to think, according to new research.
Before going into this, it should be pointed out that gay marriage is one of those issues that exist now, where most people are extremely reluctant to give their true opinions.
Before going into this, it should be pointed out that gay marriage is one of those issues that exist now, where most people are extremely reluctant to give their true opinions.
This is because many people strongly dislike "gay marriage," but don't think that it is important enough to go to war over by openly expressing their true views on the issue. They also know that to do so will immediately have them labelled homophobes, and that there will be little support from cuckservatives on the right. So, many people just prefer to keep quite about how they feel, or pretend they approve.
Because of these factors, predicting the result based on normal opinion polls is practically impossible. This is why researchers, David Tufley and Bela Stantic at Griffith University’s Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab in Queensland, Australia, decided to use advanced data techniques to get a more accurate picture of how the vote would turn out.
Using the same models they used to successfully to predict Trump's presidential election victory, they came to the conclusion that the pro-gay YES vote is set to lose.
Explaining the outcome Tufley and Stantic wrote:
"We looked at the publicly available data from 458,565 anonymised Australian tweets making reference to same-sex marriage over October 2017. We gauged the sentiment of these tweets with a rule-based model that combines a domain-specific lexicon (a dictionary of terms with assigned sentiment weighting) with a series of intensifiers (the punctuation, emoticons and other heuristics). Together, this makes it possible to know which side of the debate the person sits on, and how strongly they feel about it...
On the face of it, when all the captured Tweets were considered, there appears to be overwhelming support for Yes, with 72% in favour. But digging deeper, we see that some individuals sent more than 1,000 Tweets in support of Yes. Of the 458,565 Tweets we examined, the number of unique users came down to just 207,287. Taking the sentiment of the unique users into account, the adjusted figure in support of Yes comes down to 57%...
Looking carefully at the demographics, it emerges that less than 15% of the total Tweets were sent by people over the age of 55. Of these over-55s, only 34% expressed support for Yes. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which is conducting the postal vote, from the total number of people in Australia eligible to vote, around 36% are over 55. If we consider that the same proportion of over-55s and under-55s do not vote, then based on the opinion of the 207,287 unique social media users, the total support for the Yes position comes down to 49%."
So, there you have it. It's going to be a close run thing, but NO is set to win, meaning that marriage that actually creates life will not be equated with "marriage" merely defined by ejaculating one another's anal passages.
The YES campaign have tried to use their institutional power to railroad through this change in the law, so their failure to achieve their goal by the narrowest of margins when they thought they had it in the bag should be a cause of major butthurt.
The YES campaign have tried to use their institutional power to railroad through this change in the law, so their failure to achieve their goal by the narrowest of margins when they thought they had it in the bag should be a cause of major butthurt.
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